{"id":370241,"date":"2017-10-19T12:30:17","date_gmt":"2017-10-19T05:30:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/vibiznews.com\/?p=370241"},"modified":"2017-10-19T13:37:49","modified_gmt":"2017-10-19T06:37:49","slug":"chart-indeks-s-crash-menjelang","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2017\/10\/19\/chart-indeks-s-crash-menjelang\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Indeks S&P 500 Mirip Pergerakan pada “Black Monday” 30 Tahun Lalu; Crash Menjelang?"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Vibiznews – Index) – Chart<\/em> untuk daily price<\/em> S&P 500 tahun ini terlihat “menakutkan” seperti tahun 1987, salah satu market strategists<\/em> Wall Street yang berpengalaman panjang menunjukkannya.<\/p>\n

“Memang, ketika membandingkan indeks harian S&P 500 pada tahun 1987 dengan perkembangan sejauh ini di tahun 2017, tampaknya mengikuti pola pergerakan yang serupa,” kata Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist<\/em> dari CFRA Research, dalam catatan kepada klien pada hari Rabu, sebagaimana dilansir CNBC (19\/10).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

“Namun, jika S&P 500 ini dilihat dari perspektif kinerja harga secara daily year-to-date<\/em>, penguatan bursa 2017 relatif lebih maju seperti suatu moving average<\/em> jangka panjang dibandingkan pergerakan melonjak dan crash<\/em> bursa selama tahun 1987, “Kata Stovall.<\/p>\n

S&P 500 telah mengalami tahun terbaiknya sejauh ini, naik 14 persen mencetak rekor-rekor tertinggi. Investor telah mengumpulkan saham sejalan dengan harapan pada reformasi pajak korporasi di AS, pertumbuhan ekonomi yang membaik dan pertumbuhan earnings yang kuat.<\/p>\n

Namun, pendakian tanpa henti S&P 500 ini telah menghidupkan kembali ingatan akan anjloknya pasar (market crash<\/em>) pada 19 Oktober 1987. Pada hari itu -yang dikenal di Wall Street sebagai “Black Monday”<\/em>– S&P merosot 20,5 persen, merupakan penurunan harian terbesar dalam sejarah pasar saham AS.<\/p>\n

Ada Tiga Perbedaan<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tapi Stovall mengatakan ada perbedaan utama antara pasar saat ini dengan pasar pada 30 tahun yang lalu, seperti dikutip oleh CNBC.<\/p>\n

Pertama, pasar tahun ini tidak menunjukkan tanda-tanda euforia seperti pada tahun 1987. Dia menunjukkan bahwa 95 persen sub-industri sektor di S&P 500 naik lebih tinggi sebelum crash pasar terjadi. Pada 2017, hanya 73 persen sub-industri yang naik lebih tinggi.<\/p>\n

Stovall juga menunjukkan bahwa bullish<\/em> pasar saat ini jauh lebih panjang daripada yang di tahun 1987. Bull<\/em> kali ini -yang dimulai pada 2009- berusia 103 bulan, sementara Black Monday<\/em> mengakhiri pasar bullish 60 bulan.<\/p>\n

Dia juga mencatat bahwa suku bunga sekarang jauh lebih rendah daripada yang 30 tahun lalu. Tingkat suku bunga Federal Reserve berada di atas 7 persen pada tahun 1987. Saat ini, suku bunga overnight<\/em> berada pada kisaran 1 sampai 1,25 persen saja.<\/p>\n

“Investor dapat dipahami merasakan kecemasan yang meningkat ketika pasar bullish<\/em> saat ini disebutkan searah dengan peringatan 30 tahun Crash tahun 1987. Namun, sejarah menunjukkan bahwa perbandingan ini bukan merupakan suatu jaminan pasti,” kata Stovall.<\/p>\n

Analis Vibiznews melihat bahwa pendakian terus-menerus S&P 500 ini wajar saja jika akan menemui resistance<\/em> dan koreksinya. Secara perdagangan harian dapat kita lihat indeks S&P yang kerap bergerak fluktuatif, menandakan aksi jual yang kuat juga di samping kerasnya aksi beli.<\/p>\n

Tapi apakah koreksi nanti ini akan menimbulkan crash<\/em>? Belum tentu juga. Tetapi investor kiranya perlu mewaspadai risiko geopolitik Korea yang bisa sewaktu-waktu pecah dalam bentuk perang fisik, di samping risiko penolakan tajam terhadap rencana reformasi pajak. Indikator-indikator fundamental tersebut, dan indikator lainnya, bisa jadi suatu pemicu kepada koreksi besar pasar. Dengan catatan, jika risiko-risiko itu terjadi dalam skala yang sangat signifikan.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source: CNBC<\/em>
\nAnalis: J. John<\/em>
\nEditor: J. John<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(Vibiznews – Index) – Chart untuk daily price S&P 500 tahun ini terlihat “menakutkan” seperti tahun 1987, salah satu market strategists Wall Street yang berpengalaman panjang menunjukkannya. “Memang, ketika membandingkan indeks harian S&P 500 pada tahun 1987 dengan perkembangan sejauh ini di tahun 2017, tampaknya mengikuti pola pergerakan yang serupa,” kata Sam Stovall, chief investment […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101011,"featured_media":370243,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27,29,4161,3,23,2947,17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-370241","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles-of-the-week","category-economy-business","category-editors-pick","category-featured","category-index-options","category-market","category-popular_news"],"yoast_head":"\nChart Indeks S&P 500 Mirip Pergerakan pada "Black Monday" 30 Tahun Lalu; Crash Menjelang? 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