{"id":373693,"date":"2017-12-12T16:57:20","date_gmt":"2017-12-12T09:57:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/vibiznews.com\/?p=373693"},"modified":"2017-12-12T16:57:21","modified_gmt":"2017-12-12T09:57:21","slug":"investor-obligasi-menunggu-keputusan-the-fed-minggu-ini","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2017\/12\/12\/investor-obligasi-menunggu-keputusan-the-fed-minggu-ini\/","title":{"rendered":"Investor Obligasi Menunggu Keputusan The Fed Minggu Ini"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>(Vibiznews \u2013 Bonds &amp; Mutual Funds) \u2013 Menurut analis di pasar obligasi dunia bahwa <em>yield curve <\/em>cenderung flat dan cenderung lebih flat tahun ini. \u00a0Kurva yield menjadi flat jika premium atau spread obligasi jangka panjang misalnya tenor 30 tahun turun menjadi nol, artinya imbal hasil atau yield untuk obligasi tenor 30 tahun tidak jauh berbeda dengan obligasi tenor 5 tahun. Jika spread menjadi negatif maka kurva dikatakan <em>\u201cinverted<\/em>\u201d alias terbalik.<\/p>\n<p>Misalnya <em>US Treasury yield curve<\/em>\u00a0 berkembang semakin flat tahun ini, khususnya beberapa minggu terakhir. Spread antara obligasi tenor 2 tahun dengan obligasi tenor 10 tahun berkisar 56 basis poin turun dari 125 basis poin. Sedangkan spread antara obligasi tenor 5 tahun dan tenor 30 tahun, yang tadinya 114 basis poin di awal tahun sekarang hanya 63 basis poin.<\/p>\n<p>Para analis menilai bulan Desember ini para pelaku pasar dan investor mungkin akan lebih mentransaksikan\u00a0obligasi berdurasi jangka pendek dan panjang untuk persiapan tahun depan.<\/p>\n<p>Pergerakan imbal hasil Surat Utang Negara pada perdagangan kemarin bergerak bervariasi dengan kecenderungan mengalami penurunan jelang dimulainya Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) Bank Sentral Amerika.<\/p>\n<p>Perubahan tingkat imbal hasil berkisar antara 1 &#8211; 5 bps. Imbal hasil SUN tenor jangka pendek (1-2 tahun) naik berkisar antara 1 &#8211; 2 bps dengan harga turun hingga sebesar 3 bps. Sementara SUN tenor lebih panjang sedikit (3-4 tahun) turun 1 &#8211; 2 bps dengan harga naik hingga sebesar 6 bps.<\/p>\n<p>Pasar obligasi minggu ini akan lebih banyak\u00a0menanti beberapa hal penting yang akan keluar. Dimulai dari rapat Bank Sentral Amerika akan kenaikan Fed\u00a0Ratenya yang tingkat probabilitasnya sudah mencapai 100% yang disinyalir akan keluar minggu ini, dan setelahnya Bank Sentral\u00a0Indonesia juga akan memberikan keputusan BI Rate yang diperkirakan akan tetap bertahan.<\/p>\n<p>Sejauh ini,\u00a0<em>spread<\/em>\u00a0premium antara Fed Rate dengan BI Rate masih dapat dikatakan cukup terjaga. Permasalahan utama saat ini adalah kekuatan nilai tukar kita yang terlalu\u00a0<em>volatile<\/em>, sehingga tidak memberikan kenyamanan\u00a0bagi para pelaku pasar dan investor. Namun nilai inflasi Amerika juga perlu dicermati sebab menurut konsensus inflasi YoY \u00a0Amerika diperkirakan berada di 2.2%<\/p>\n<p>Di Indonesia, setelah\u00a0keputusan BI Rate, fokus berikutnya beralih kepada neraca perdagangan, ekspor dan impor yang diperkirakan secara konsensus juga mengalami surplus.\u00a0Pagi ini, Selasa (12\/12\/2017) pasar obligasi diperkirakan akan dibuka bervariasi dengan rentang pergerakan\u00a0naik dan turun 25 \u2013 55 bps.\u00a0\u00a0Menurut analis Vibiz hal ini akan menjadikan pasar obligasi tidak akan bergerak dengan faktor yang\u00a0telah diberikan.\u00a0Secara teknikal analisis, obligasi 5 tahun, 10 tahun, dan 15 tahun masih menunjukkan penurunan, tetapi\u00a0 pergerakan\u00a0obligasi kemarin menunjukkan penguatan meskipun tidak banyak.<\/p>\n<p>Kemarin, total transaksi dan frekuensi meningkat dibandingkan dengan hari sebelumnya di tengah tengah penantian berbagai hal. Total transaksi didominasi oleh obligasi berdurasi 10 \u2013 15 tahun, diikuti dengan obligasi berdurasi 7 \u2013 10 tahun dan berdurasi 3 \u2013 5 tahun. Sisanya merata disemua tenor hingga &gt; 25 tahun.<\/p>\n<p>Sementara itu pasar obligasi juga diramaikan dengan berita yield obligasi domestik diramalkan naik jika Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) menetapkan kenaikan suku bunga acuan Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat (The Fed) pada rapat hari Rabu, 13 Desember 2017.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<pre><em>Belinda\/VMN\/VBN\/Senior Analyst Vibiz Research Center<\/em>\r\n<em>Editor : Asido Situmorang<\/em><\/pre>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Vibiznews \u2013 Bonds &amp; Mutual Funds) \u2013 Menurut analis di pasar obligasi dunia bahwa yield curve cenderung flat dan cenderung lebih flat tahun ini. \u00a0Kurva yield menjadi flat jika premium atau spread obligasi jangka panjang misalnya tenor 30 tahun turun menjadi nol, artinya imbal hasil atau yield untuk obligasi tenor 30 tahun tidak jauh berbeda [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101013,"featured_media":214451,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[179,29],"tags":[1289,3821,6201,6199],"class_list":["post-373693","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bond-mutual","category-economy-business","tag-bi-rate","tag-fed-rate","tag-spread-premium","tag-yield-curve-obligasi-flat"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.9 - 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