{"id":381671,"date":"2018-04-06T17:24:03","date_gmt":"2018-04-06T10:24:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/vibiznews.com\/?p=381671"},"modified":"2018-04-06T17:51:59","modified_gmt":"2018-04-06T10:51:59","slug":"outlook-laporan-non-farm-payrolls-as-usdjpy-tembus-108","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/06\/outlook-laporan-non-farm-payrolls-as-usdjpy-tembus-108\/","title":{"rendered":"Outlook Laporan Non-Farm Payrolls AS, USD\/JPY Tembus 108?"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Vibiznews-Forex) Dolar AS diperdagangkan lebih tinggi dibandingkan terhadap matauang utama dunia lainnya meskipun data AS yang keluar lebih lemah daripada yang diperkirakan. Satu hal yang berarti adalah saham yang melanjutkan kenaikannya setelah terjadinya balik arah yang dramatis. USD\/JPY\u00a0 menyentuh ketinggian baru selama 1 bulan dan sekarang sedang mengarah ke 108. Sementara pasangan mata uang ini mendekati level 108, bukannya tidak mungkin akan menembus level tersebut menjelang laporan Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) pada malam hari ini. Setelah kenaikan tingkat suku bunga di bulan Maret, laporan pekerjaan yang segera akan muncul ini tidak akan berpengaruh langsung terhadap kebijakan Fed karena investor tidak mengharapkan kenaikan tingkat bunga lagi sampai yang paling cepat bulan Juni nanti. Namun NFP selalu merupakan rilis data yang penting dan perubahan yang terjadi terhadap bulan yang lalu akan memiliki pengaruh yang besar terhadap pergerakan matauang. Para ekonom sedang menantikan pertumbuhan pekerjaan yang melambat secara signifikan, yang akan berefek negatip terhadap dolar AS tetapi mereka juga sedang mengantisipasikan perbaikan di dalam tingkat pengangguran dan pertumbuhan penghasilan rata-rata perjam yang lebih kuat.<\/p>\n

Setelah permulaan yang kuat pada tahun ini, pertumbuhan upah menurun menjadi 2.6% di bulan Februari. Kali ini diperkirakan ada sedikit kenaikan menjadi 2.8%. Dari bulan ke bulan, diproyeksikan ada penambahan 0.3% setelah pada waktu terakhir yang lalu sebesar 0.1%. \u00a0Menurut Forex Crunch, pertumbuhan pekerjaan yang teratas diperkirakan hanya akan bertambah sebesar 190.000 setelah terjadi kenaikan yang besar sebesar 313.000 di bulan Februari. Bisa jadi akan ada revisi yang signifikan setelah hasil yang begitu kuat. Tingkat pengangguran yang sudah rendah sebesar 4.1% diperkirakan akan turun lagi menjadi 4%. Tingkat partisipasi berada pada 63% di bulan Februari dan suatu perubahan yang signifikan disana bisa menurunkan tingkat pengangguran. Kecuali terjadi perubahan yang ekstrim dalam pekerjaan, upah tetap berada pada garis depan. \u00a0Kathy Lien dari Nasdaq.com memberikan pendapat yang senada dimana menurutnya ada lebih banyak argument yang mendukung laporan pekerjaan keluar lebih lemah. Tetapi dengan komponen dari employment ISM non manufaktur yang naik di bulan Maret, angka umumnya bisa lebih baik terutama jika pertumbuhan pekerjaan di revisi menjadi lebih rendah. Berikut ini adalah argument bagi NFP bulan ini:<\/p>\n

Argumen yang mendukung Payrolls lebih kuat:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Naiknya komponen employment di ISM non manufaktur<\/li>\n
  2. Kenaikan dari indeks sentimen konsumen Universitas Michigan.<\/li>\n
  3. Terus turunnya Klaim menjadi yang terendah dalam 40 tahun.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Argumen yang mendukung Payrolls lebih lemah:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Turunnya komponen employment untuk ISM Manufaktur<\/li>\n
    2. Kenaikan yang lebih kecil di dalam laporan ADP di payrolls swasta.<\/li>\n
    3. Turunnya indeks Conference Board keyakinan konsumen.<\/li>\n
    4. Moving Average 4 minggu naik menjadi 228.000<\/li>\n
    5. Kenaikan 39.4% di dalam penghentian pekerjaan<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Mempertimbangkan kekuatan dolar AS belakangan ini, investor menaruh posisi untuk angka pasar tenaga kerja yang lebih kuat tetapi ada banyak ruangan untuk terjadi sebaliknya. Akan ada reaksi yang besar tergantung dari arah kejutan yang terjadi. Jika payrolls melampaui 200.000, pertumbuhan upah naik sebanyak 0.3% dan tingkat pengangguran turun sebagaimana yang diperkirakan, USD\/JPY akan menembus 108 dengan mudah. Namun, jika upah hanya naik 0.2%, tingkat pengangguran tetap tidak berubah dan payrolls dibawah angka 200.000, kita akan melihat USD\/JPY berada dibawah 106.80.<\/p>\n

      Ricky Ferlianto\/VBN\/Head of III, Vibiz Consulting Group<\/p>\n

      Editor: Asido<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      (Vibiznews-Forex) Dolar AS diperdagangkan lebih tinggi dibandingkan terhadap matauang utama dunia lainnya meskipun data AS yang keluar lebih lemah daripada yang diperkirakan. Satu hal yang berarti adalah saham yang melanjutkan kenaikannya setelah terjadinya balik arah yang dramatis. USD\/JPY\u00a0 menyentuh ketinggian baru selama 1 bulan dan sekarang sedang mengarah ke 108. Sementara pasangan mata uang ini […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101021,"featured_media":175181,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[91],"tags":[589,6655,6695,417,555,6705,6885,6895,6887,6691,6787,735,4231,6899,2719,2885,309,6903,165,6653,3653,345,6901,2121,6693,6889,63,65,167,6893,3015,6883,2399,6785,2357,6659,6891,6793,6789,6897,2469,169,895],"class_list":["post-381671","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forex","tag-amerika","tag-analisis","tag-aud","tag-aussie","tag-australia","tag-berita","tag-cad","tag-canada","tag-chf","tag-currency","tag-dagang","tag-dolar","tag-ekonomi","tag-england","tag-eropa","tag-eur","tag-euro","tag-europe","tag-forex-2","tag-fundamental","tag-gbp","tag-inggris","tag-japan","tag-jepang","tag-jpy","tag-kanada","tag-komoditas","tag-komoditi","tag-matauang","tag-new-zealand","tag-news","tag-nzd","tag-outlook","tag-perang","tag-poundsterling","tag-prediksi","tag-selandia-baru","tag-swiss-franc","tag-tarif","tag-usa","tag-usd","tag-valas","tag-yen"],"yoast_head":"\nOutlook Laporan Non-Farm Payrolls AS, USD\/JPY Tembus 108? - Vibiznews.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/06\/outlook-laporan-non-farm-payrolls-as-usdjpy-tembus-108\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Outlook Laporan Non-Farm Payrolls AS, USD\/JPY Tembus 108? - Vibiznews.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(Vibiznews-Forex) Dolar AS diperdagangkan lebih tinggi dibandingkan terhadap matauang utama dunia lainnya meskipun data AS yang keluar lebih lemah daripada yang diperkirakan. 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He was experience in futures business for 13 years in Futures Brokerage Firm and 3 years in Futures Exchange. Currently he is a Head Research of Vibiz Consulting.\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/author\/ricky-ferlianto\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Outlook Laporan Non-Farm Payrolls AS, USD\/JPY Tembus 108? - Vibiznews.com","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/06\/outlook-laporan-non-farm-payrolls-as-usdjpy-tembus-108\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Outlook Laporan Non-Farm Payrolls AS, USD\/JPY Tembus 108? - Vibiznews.com","og_description":"(Vibiznews-Forex) Dolar AS diperdagangkan lebih tinggi dibandingkan terhadap matauang utama dunia lainnya meskipun data AS yang keluar lebih lemah daripada yang diperkirakan. 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