{"id":397851,"date":"2018-11-13T15:16:51","date_gmt":"2018-11-13T08:16:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/vibiznews.com\/?p=397851"},"modified":"2018-11-13T15:16:51","modified_gmt":"2018-11-13T08:16:51","slug":"imf-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-global-melambat-waspadai-sudden-reversal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/13\/imf-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-global-melambat-waspadai-sudden-reversal\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF: Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Global Melambat, Waspadai \u201cSudden Reversal\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Vibiznews \u2013 Economy) \u2013 Pertumbuhan terlihat melambat di sejumlah perekonomian besar dunia, dan Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) memperingatkan bahwa sentimen investor bisa membuat suatu “pembalikan tiba-tiba” (“sudden reversal<\/em>“) kepada kondisi yang lebih buruk.<\/p>\n

“Meskipun masih mendukung pertumbuhan, kondisi keuangan global sekarang ini telah mulai semakin ketat.\u201d Tulis IMF dalam laporan terbaru \u201cRegional Economic Outlook report for Middle East and Central Asia\u201d, yang dirilis hari Selasa ini, demikian dikutip dari CNBC (13\/11).<\/p>\n

Laporan ini diterbitkan setiap tahun dan memberikan gambaran luas tentang perkembangan ekonomi terkini dan prospek serta masalah kebijakan untuk jangka menengah.<\/p>\n

“Kondisi global berubah dalam hal ukuran risiko,” demikian menurut Jihad Azour, Direktur Timur Tengah dan Asia Tengah di IMF, mengatakannya kepada CNBC dalam acara “Capital Connection” (13\/11).<\/p>\n

“Meskipun kita masih bisa menikmati tingkat pertumbuhan yang tinggi, tetapi pertumbuhannya itu melandai,\u201d tambahnya.<\/p>\n

IMF menyebutkan bahwa suku bunga AS yang lebih tinggi, dolar AS yang lebih kuat, dan volatilitas pasar keuangan dapat membawa tekanan di beberapa pasar emerging<\/em> dan negara berkembang.<\/p>\n

“Memburuknya perkembangan kondisi ini, juga pengetatan kebijakan moneter di negara maju yang lebih cepat dari yang diantisipasi, dapat meningkatkan risiko pembalikan tiba-tiba (“sudden reversal<\/em>“) \u00a0dalam risk appetite global<\/em>,” demikian disebutkan laporan IMF itu.<\/p>\n

Ekonomi Besar M<\/strong>elambat<\/strong>
\nIMF memperkirakan pertumbuhan global untuk 2018-2019 akan tetap stabil pada sekitar level di tahun 2017 sebesar 3,7 persen, tetapi prospek pertumbuhan sejumlah negara besar utama telah mengalami penurunan.<\/p>\n

Di Amerika Serikat, sementara prospek pertumbuhan PDB riil untuk 2018 tidak berubah pada 2,9 persen, perkiraan untuk tahun 2019 telah direvisi turun menjadi 2,5 persen karena langkah-langkah kebijakan perdagangan belakangan ini.<\/p>\n

Amerika Serikat telah memasuki sengketa tarif yang serius dengan Cina, dan masih belum jelas berapa lama konflik itu akan berlangsung.<\/p>\n

Outlook untuk ekonomi pasar emerging<\/em> dan berkembang juga melemah, sebagaimana tercermin dalam revisi ke bawah untuk beberapa ekonomi emerging yang besar karena faktor spesifik negara, seperti kondisi finansial yang makin ketat, ketegangan geopolitik dan harga minyak yang lebih tinggi, demikian menurut laporan tersebut.<\/p>\n

PDB riil di kawasan Euro juga akan melambat menjadi 1,9 persen pada tahun 2019, dibandingkan dengan 2,9 persen pada 2018. Pertumbuhan juga akan moderat di Inggris, menyusul goncangan yang menekan aktivitas ekonomi pada awal 2018, tertulis dalam laporan.<\/p>\n

IMF mempermasalahkan langkah kebijakan perdagangan baru-baru ini antara Amerika Serikat dan China yang membawa proyeksi penurunan pertumbuhan di China, yaitu sebesar 6,2 persen pada 2019, 6,6 persen pada 2018 dan 6,9 persen pada tahun 2017.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ekonomi Indonesia Stabil Suatu Prestasi<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sementara itu, analis Vibiznews melihat bahwa tekanan dan goncangan eksternal terhadap perekonomian Indonesia, saat ini dan ke depannya, akan semakin berat. Kita bisa melihat, di antaranya tekanan dollar terhadap rupiah, yang sesungguhnya terjadi juga ke hampir semua Negara di dunia, baik yang emerging<\/em> maupun kelompok perekonomian maju.<\/p>\n

Oleh sebab itu, rilis data pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia terakhir kuartal III di angka 5,17 persen, serta perkiraan pertumbuhan 2018 sebesar 5,2 persen, itu merupakan figur yang tetap baik. Ekonomi bisa bertahan stabil, di level relatif tinggi, dalam tekanan eksternal global yang kuat, tetap layak disebut sebagai suatu prestasi, hasil kinerja administrasi ekonomi yang solid.<\/p>\n

Yang perlu diwaspadai berikutnya adalah volatilitas di pasar modal dan pasar uang. Hal ini juga mengingat korelasi yang kuat dengan fluktuasi pasar global, dari Wall Street sampai regional Asia, serta kekuatan mata uang dollar yang terdukung ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga the Fed, serta statusnya sebagai aset safe haven<\/em> pilihan di situasi risiko pasar yang meningkat.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Alfred Pakasi\/VBN\/MP Vibiz Consulting Group<\/em><\/p>\n

Editor: Asido<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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