{"id":404573,"date":"2019-01-31T01:00:24","date_gmt":"2019-01-30T18:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/vibiznews.com\/?p=404573"},"modified":"2019-01-31T01:46:22","modified_gmt":"2019-01-30T18:46:22","slug":"keputusan-the-fed-3-skenario-usd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/31\/keputusan-the-fed-3-skenario-usd\/","title":{"rendered":"Keputusan The Fed: 3 Skenario USD"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Vibiznews-Forex) Adalah pertamakalinya Gubernur \u00a0the Fed mengadakan konferensi pers tanpa perkiraan akan kondisi ekonomi kedepan yang baru. Tidak ada keraguan bahwa dia akan berbicara mengenai topik, apakah mengadakan konfrontasi langsung atau merespon terhadap pertanyaan-pertanyaan reporter.<\/p>\n

Bagaimana pengaruhnya terhadap USD? Ada 3 Skenario:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Pengumuman di dalam \u201cstatement\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Jika the Fed mengambil langkah kedepan dan mengumumkan mereka sedang mempertimbangkan suatu perubahan terhadap kebijakan pengurangan neraca yang sudah ada di dalam pernyataan sebelumnya, dolar AS akan jatuh segera karena hal ini belum diperhitungkan pasar untuk dimasukkan kedalam harga.<\/p>\n

    Kemungkinan untuk skenario pertama ini rendah. Kalau sampai terjadi, efeknya terhadap dolar AS sangat negatif.<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Powell akan berkata sedang dicheck.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Jika Gubernur Fed menyebutkan mengenai neraca di dalam pernyataan yang telah disiapkan sebelumnya atau berkata mereka sedang menguji pilihan mengubah neraca sebagai respon terhadap pertanyaan, hal ini juga akan menandai perubahan yang resmi di dalam kebijakan. Namun ada perbedaan antara membicarakannya di dalam konferensi pers dengan mengatakannya secara lantang.<\/p>\n

      Namun hal ini sudah setengah diperhitungkan di dalam harga dan tidak akan menjadi kejutan yang besar. Dolar AS bisa jadi turun namun pulih kembali setelahnya. Kita akan melihat respon \u201c”buy the rumor, sell the fact”.<\/p>\n

      Kemungkinan untuk skenario kedua ini tinggi dan efek terhadap dolar AS hanya turun sedikit pada awal mulanya.<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Powell akan kemungkinan besar mengabaikannya<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Dia tidak mungkin mengulangi komentar \u201cautopilot\u201d, karena dia telah membuka pintu untuk perubahan, namun dia bisa mendekat.<\/p>\n

        Jika Powell merespon terhadap pertanyaan mengenai hal ini dengan mengatakan the Fed \u201cmungkin\u201d atau \u201cbisa jadi\u201d melihat pada perubahan rencana pengurangan neraca, pasar sekali lagi akan melihat hal ini sebagai pilihan yang jauh. Hal ini pada dasarnya adalah penyangkalan terhadap laporan WSJ yang mengatakan bahwa the Fed sedang memikirkan kemungkinan akan hal ini dengan serius.<\/p>\n

        Dalam hal ini, dolar AS kemungkinan akan naik karena terkejut dan saham akan terpukul. Pasar masih memerlukan ke \u201cdovish\u201dan dari the Fed.<\/p>\n

        Kemungkinan untuk hal ini terjadi adalah mediu. Dan efeknya terhadap dolar AS adalah positip.<\/p>\n

        Program pengurangan neraca adalah sentral di dalam keputusan the Fed pada bulan Januari 2019. Jika the Fed mengambil langkah maju kedepan, hal ini merugikan dolar AS sebaliknya mengabaikan laporan media bisa mengirim dolar AS menjadi naik lebih tinggi.<\/p>\n

        Ricky Ferlianto\/VBN\/Managing Partner\u00a0 Vibiz Consulting Group<\/p>\n

        Editor: Asido<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        (Vibiznews-Forex) Adalah pertamakalinya Gubernur \u00a0the Fed mengadakan konferensi pers tanpa perkiraan akan kondisi ekonomi kedepan yang baru. Tidak ada keraguan bahwa dia akan berbicara mengenai topik, apakah mengadakan konfrontasi langsung atau merespon terhadap pertanyaan-pertanyaan reporter. Bagaimana pengaruhnya terhadap USD? Ada 3 Skenario: Pengumuman di dalam \u201cstatement\u201d Jika the Fed mengambil langkah kedepan dan mengumumkan mereka […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101021,"featured_media":371067,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[91],"tags":[589,6655,6695,417,555,6705,6885,6895,6887,6691,6787,735,4231,6899,2719,2885,309,6903,165,6653,3653,345,6901,2121,6693,6889,63,65,167,6893,3015,6883,2399,6785,2357,6659,6891,6793,6789,6897,2469,169,895],"class_list":["post-404573","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forex","tag-amerika","tag-analisis","tag-aud","tag-aussie","tag-australia","tag-berita","tag-cad","tag-canada","tag-chf","tag-currency","tag-dagang","tag-dolar","tag-ekonomi","tag-england","tag-eropa","tag-eur","tag-euro","tag-europe","tag-forex-2","tag-fundamental","tag-gbp","tag-inggris","tag-japan","tag-jepang","tag-jpy","tag-kanada","tag-komoditas","tag-komoditi","tag-matauang","tag-new-zealand","tag-news","tag-nzd","tag-outlook","tag-perang","tag-poundsterling","tag-prediksi","tag-selandia-baru","tag-swiss-franc","tag-tarif","tag-usa","tag-usd","tag-valas","tag-yen"],"yoast_head":"\nKeputusan The Fed: 3 Skenario USD - Vibiznews.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/31\/keputusan-the-fed-3-skenario-usd\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Keputusan The Fed: 3 Skenario USD - Vibiznews.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(Vibiznews-Forex) Adalah pertamakalinya Gubernur \u00a0the Fed mengadakan konferensi pers tanpa perkiraan akan kondisi ekonomi kedepan yang baru. 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