{"id":410689,"date":"2019-04-26T13:11:21","date_gmt":"2019-04-26T06:11:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/vibiznews.com\/?p=410689"},"modified":"2019-04-26T14:15:54","modified_gmt":"2019-04-26T07:15:54","slug":"preview-gdp-as-kuartal-pertama-alasan-untuk-optimis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/26\/preview-gdp-as-kuartal-pertama-alasan-untuk-optimis\/","title":{"rendered":"Preview GDP AS Kuartal Pertama: Alasan Untuk Optimis."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>(Vibiznews-Forex) The Bureau of Economic Analysis\u00a0 suatu divis dari Departemen Perdagangan akan mengeluarkan perkiraan pertamanya untuk GDP tahunan AS kuartal pertama pada malam hari ini. Rilis pertama dari GDP AS cenderung memberikan kejutan yang paling luas dan paling mempengaruhi pasar secara signifikan. Ekonomi AS bertumbuh dengan kecepatan 2.2% setahun pada kuartal keempat 2018, mengatasi ekonomi negara maju lainnya.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Perkiraan Untuk Kuartal I <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Kuartal pertama dari 2019 kemungkinan mengalami pertumbuhan yang melambat, sebagian disebabkan karena penghentian operasi pemerintah. Tapi seberapa besarnya ekonomi melambat? Perkiraan pasar mengatakan pertumbuhan ekonomi AS pada kuartal pertama 2019 adalah sebesar 2.1% setahun setelah pada kuartal keempat 2018 sebesar 2.2%. Core personal consumption expenditures diperkirakan 1.6% turun dari sebelumnya 1.9%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Pertumbuhan Ekonomi &amp; Pasar Tenaga Kerja<\/strong><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Di dalam ekonomi yang 70% digerakkan oleh belanja rumahtangga seperti Amerika Serikat, sikap dan outlook dari para konsumen adalah kuncinya. Investasi bisnis adalah penting sebagai faktor secondary namun ia cenderung mengikuti arah dari konsumen yang berkuasa. Fakta \u00a0yang paling menonjol dalam hal konsumsi adalah kondisidari pasar tenaga kerja.<\/p>\n<p>Jika orang pada bekerja dan percaya diri dengan penghasilannya yang stabil dan kemampuannya untuk mendapatkan pekerjaan baru apabila kebutuhan meningkat, mereka akan terdorong untuk menghabiskan porsi yang banyak dari penghasilan mereka yang bisa dihabiskan.<\/p>\n<p>Kesuksesan dari pasar tenaga kerja dalam menciptakan lapangan pekerjaan selama lebih dari\u00a0 dua tahun adalah cerita yang sudah terkenal. Dari kerendahan non-farm payrolls di bulan September 2017 sebanyak 167.000 sampai mencapai 235.000 pada bulan Januari 2019.<\/p>\n<p>Kenaikan upah telah naik ke level tertinggi setelah resesi menunjukkan kekurangan tenaga kerja telah memaksa para pemberi kerja untuk berkompetisi di dalam mencari pekerja. Keuntungan tahunan sebesar 3.4% pada bulan Februari adalah yang tertinggi sejak bulan April 2009. Penurunan ke 3.2% di bulan Maret masih meninggalkan para pekerja upah yang lebih \u00a0baik dalam 10 tahun sampai bulan Oktober 2018.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Optimisme Konsumen<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Optimisme konsumen yang diukur oleh The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index mengalami \u201crebound\u201d menjadi 98.4 pada bulan Maret yang lalu. Angka dari The Conference Board juga mirip. Setelah mencapai ketinggian setelah resesi sebesar 137.9 pada Oktober, jatuh ke 126 pada bulan Desember. Kembali pulih ke 131.4 pada bulan Februari, kemudian turun ke 124 pada bulan Maret dan pada bulan April diperkirakan naik kembali ke 126.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Penjualan Eceran &amp; Durable Goods<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Penjualan eceran AS memberikan kejutan yang bagus pada bulan Maret naik 1.6% dibandingkan dengan yang diperkirakan 0.9%.\u00a0 Component control group GDP lebih dari duakali lipat, melompat ke 1.0% dibandingkan dengan yang diprediksi sebesar 0.40%. Hal ini memberikan kuartal pertama kenaikan rata-rata bulanan sebanyak 0.73%.\u00a0 Dibandingkan dengan kuartal terakhir tahun lalu sebesar -0.20% rata-rata per bulan.<\/p>\n<p>Order \u201cdurable goods\u201d juga sama. Rata-rata kuartal pertama adalah 0.50%, dibandingkan denga kuartal keempat &#8211; 0.77%. Barang-barang modal naik rata-rata 0.67% pada kuartal pertama, pada kuartal keempat tahun lalu mereka terbenam 0.27% tiap bulan.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kesimpulan<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Tingkat pertumbuhan GDP pada kuartal keempat 2018 sebesar 2.2% setahun diperkirakan akan berlanjut di kuartal pertama \u00a0dengan perkiraan pertumbuhan sebesar 2.1% setahun.<\/p>\n<p>Namun, angka penjualan eceran, belanja modal untuk bisnis yang jauh lebih baik, \u201crebound\u201d di dalam optimisme konsumen dan pasar tenaga kerja yang tangguh, semuanya menunjuk kepada kemajuan di dalam ekonomi umum\u00a0 pada kuartal yang baru saja akan segera dilengkapi. Fed Atlanta sekarang memperkirakan kecepatan pertumbuhan GDP AS adalah sebesar 2.7% setahun.<\/p>\n<p>Dimana konsumen AS memimpin, disana ekonomi AS akan selalu mengikutinya.<\/p>\n<p>Ricky Ferlianto\/VBN\/Managing Partner\u00a0 Vibiz Consulting<\/p>\n<p>Editor: Asido<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Vibiznews-Forex) The Bureau of Economic Analysis\u00a0 suatu divis dari Departemen Perdagangan akan mengeluarkan perkiraan pertamanya untuk GDP tahunan AS kuartal pertama pada malam hari ini. Rilis pertama dari GDP AS cenderung memberikan kejutan yang paling luas dan paling mempengaruhi pasar secara signifikan. Ekonomi AS bertumbuh dengan kecepatan 2.2% setahun pada kuartal keempat 2018, mengatasi ekonomi [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101021,"featured_media":62883,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[91],"tags":[589,6655,6695,417,555,6705,6885,6895,6887,6691,6787,735,4231,6899,2719,2885,309,6903,165,6653,3653,345,6901,2121,6693,6889,63,65,167,6893,3015,6883,2399,6785,2357,6659,6891,6793,6789,6897,2469,169,895],"class_list":["post-410689","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forex","tag-amerika","tag-analisis","tag-aud","tag-aussie","tag-australia","tag-berita","tag-cad","tag-canada","tag-chf","tag-currency","tag-dagang","tag-dolar","tag-ekonomi","tag-england","tag-eropa","tag-eur","tag-euro","tag-europe","tag-forex-2","tag-fundamental","tag-gbp","tag-inggris","tag-japan","tag-jepang","tag-jpy","tag-kanada","tag-komoditas","tag-komoditi","tag-matauang","tag-new-zealand","tag-news","tag-nzd","tag-outlook","tag-perang","tag-poundsterling","tag-prediksi","tag-selandia-baru","tag-swiss-franc","tag-tarif","tag-usa","tag-usd","tag-valas","tag-yen"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Preview GDP AS Kuartal Pertama: Alasan Untuk Optimis. - Vibiznews.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/26\/preview-gdp-as-kuartal-pertama-alasan-untuk-optimis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Preview GDP AS Kuartal Pertama: Alasan Untuk Optimis. - Vibiznews.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(Vibiznews-Forex) The Bureau of Economic Analysis\u00a0 suatu divis dari Departemen Perdagangan akan mengeluarkan perkiraan pertamanya untuk GDP tahunan AS kuartal pertama pada malam hari ini. Rilis pertama dari GDP AS cenderung memberikan kejutan yang paling luas dan paling mempengaruhi pasar secara signifikan. 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He was experience in futures business for 13 years in Futures Brokerage Firm and 3 years in Futures Exchange. Currently he is a Head Research of Vibiz Consulting.\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/author\/ricky-ferlianto\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Preview GDP AS Kuartal Pertama: Alasan Untuk Optimis. - Vibiznews.com","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/26\/preview-gdp-as-kuartal-pertama-alasan-untuk-optimis\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Preview GDP AS Kuartal Pertama: Alasan Untuk Optimis. - Vibiznews.com","og_description":"(Vibiznews-Forex) The Bureau of Economic Analysis\u00a0 suatu divis dari Departemen Perdagangan akan mengeluarkan perkiraan pertamanya untuk GDP tahunan AS kuartal pertama pada malam hari ini. 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