{"id":421957,"date":"2019-10-04T17:12:19","date_gmt":"2019-10-04T10:12:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/vibiznews.com\/?p=421957"},"modified":"2019-10-04T19:16:57","modified_gmt":"2019-10-04T12:16:57","slug":"preview-non-farm-payrolls-5-skenario-eur-usd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/04\/preview-non-farm-payrolls-5-skenario-eur-usd\/","title":{"rendered":"Preview Non-Farm Payrolls: 5 Skenario EUR\/USD"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Vibiznews-Forex) Ketakutan sedang bertumbuh bahwa lapangan pekerjaan Amerika sedang melambat \u2013 yang telah memukul dolar AS \u2013 namun apakah EUR\/USD bisa naik? Laporan Non-Farm Payrolls bulan September sedang diawasi dengan ketakutan dan bisa memicu lebih banyak volatilitas daripada biasanya.<\/p>\n

Pasar tenaga kerja telah menonjol di dalam ekonomi Amerika Serikat dengan kekuatannya dan stabilitasnya. Negara dengan perekonomian terbesar di dunia ini telah memperoleh 200.000 pekerjaan secara rata-rata selama beberapa tahun belakangan. Naik dan turun di dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan tingkat bunga datang dan pergi \u2013 namun rata-rata pertumbuhan pekerjaan tetap stabil.<\/p>\n

Sekarang ketakutan perlambatan di dalam pencarian pekerjaan telah meningkat. Dua laporan pekerjaan bulan Juli dan Agustus keluar dengan jumlah penciptaan pekerjaan dibawah 200.000. Perlambatan ini bahkan telah mempengaruhi ekspektasi.<\/p>\n

Purchasing Manager Index ISM untuk sektor manufaktur jatuh ke 47.8 pada bulan September \u2013 level terendah selama lebih dari 10 tahun. Terlebih lagi komponen \u201cemployment\u201d juga jatuh \u2013 menunjukkan perekrutan pekerja yang melemah. Hasil dari indikator yang melihat kedepan ini telah mengirim dolar AS turun.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Laporan \u00a0Non-Farm Payrolls dari ADP juga meleset dari yang diperkirakan dengan menunjukkan kenaikan hanya 135.000 di dalam sektor pekerjaan swasta bulan September.<\/p>\n

Federal Reserve telah memangkas tingkat suku bunganya di dalam dua keputusan sebelumnya namun memberikan signal stop. Tetapi, data belakangan telah mendorong kemungkinan adanya pemangkasan tingkat bunga pada bulan Oktober diatas 70% – dan laporan pekerjaan mala mini tidak diragukan lagi akan membentuk ekspektasi.<\/p>\n

Kenaikan yang lebih sedikit dari 100.000 pekerjaan bisa mendorong pasar untuk memperhitungkan di dalam harga pemangkasan tingkat bunga pada pertemuan tanggal 30 Oktober menjadi 100%. Sebaliknya, investor kemungkinan mengeluarkan dari harga akan pemangkasan tingkat bunga jika ekonomi AS memperoleh 200.000 pekerjaan atau lebih.<\/p>\n

Lima skenario pergerakan EUR\/USD setelah keluarnya laporan Non-Farm Payrolls<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Di dalam ekspektasi \u2013 100.000 \u2013 150.000<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Rentang di dalam ekspektasi ini cenderung memberikan penurunan dibandingkan dengan konsensus 140.000 yang muncul di dalam kalender data ekonomi AS sebagai data penurunan. Di dalam skenario ini, dolar AS kemungkinan akan bergerak \u201cchoppy\u201d sementara EUR\/USD kemungkinan mengakhiri penurunan bertahapnya. Hal ini \u00a0akan memberikan peringatan bahwa \u201cAmerika Serikat adalah baju terbersih di dalam tumpukan baju kotor\u201d.<\/p>\n

    Skenario ini memiliki probabilita yang tinggi.<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Diatas ekspektasi \u2013 150.000 \u2013 200.000<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Kembalinya ke rentang normal bisa mengirim dolar naik lebih tinggi secara luas dan EUR\/USD bisa turun. Kemungkinan dari Federal Reserve akan memangkas tingkat suku bunga juga akan turun.<\/p>\n

      Skenario ini memiliki probabilita medium.<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Jauh diatas ekspektasi – > 200.000<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Laporan Non-Farm Payrolls cenderung mengejutkan dan suatu \u201crebound\u201d sebagaimana yang terjadi pada bulan Maret, bisa mengirim dolar AS naik dan bisa dengan mudah mengirim EUR\/USD ke kerendahan baru selama dua tahun.<\/p>\n

          \n
        1. Dibawah ekspektasi \u2013 50.000 \u2013 100.000<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          Berlanjutnya penurunan bertahap \u2013 dari 159.000 menjadi 130.000 dan dibawah 100.000 memiliki probabilita tinggi sampai medium. Dalam hal ini, dolar AS kemungkinan turun secara meluas dengan naiknya kemungkinan pemangkasan tingkat bunga oleh the Fed.<\/p>\n

            \n
          1. Jauh dibawah ekspektasi 50.000 atau lebih buruk lagi<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            Di dalam kasus yang sangat menghancurkan dimana ekonomi AS hampir tidak menciptakan lapangan pekerjaan, dolar AS akan terjun bebas dengan pemangkasan tingkat suku bunga pada bulan Oktober sudah dipastikan. Hal ini juga akan membuk pintu kepada ronde baru dari Quantitative Easing. Skenario ini rendah probabilita terjadinya dan EUR\/USD akan memiliki ruangan untuk naik.<\/p>\n

            Ricky Ferlianto\/VBN\/Managing Partner\u00a0 Vibiz Consulting<\/p>\n

            Editor: Asido<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

            (Vibiznews-Forex) Ketakutan sedang bertumbuh bahwa lapangan pekerjaan Amerika sedang melambat \u2013 yang telah memukul dolar AS \u2013 namun apakah EUR\/USD bisa naik? Laporan Non-Farm Payrolls bulan September sedang diawasi dengan ketakutan dan bisa memicu lebih banyak volatilitas daripada biasanya. Pasar tenaga kerja telah menonjol di dalam ekonomi Amerika Serikat dengan kekuatannya dan stabilitasnya. Negara dengan […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101021,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[91],"tags":[589,6655,6695,417,555,9453,6885,6895,6887,6691,6787,735,4231,6899,2719,2885,309,6903,165,6653,3653,345,6901,2121,6693,6889,63,65,167,6893,3015,6883,2399,6785,2357,6659,6891,6793,6789,6897,2469,169,895],"class_list":["post-421957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forex","tag-amerika","tag-analisis","tag-aud","tag-aussie","tag-australia","tag-berita-2","tag-cad","tag-canada","tag-chf","tag-currency","tag-dagang","tag-dolar","tag-ekonomi","tag-england","tag-eropa","tag-eur","tag-euro","tag-europe","tag-forex-2","tag-fundamental","tag-gbp","tag-inggris","tag-japan","tag-jepang","tag-jpy","tag-kanada","tag-komoditas","tag-komoditi","tag-matauang","tag-new-zealand","tag-news","tag-nzd","tag-outlook","tag-perang","tag-poundsterling","tag-prediksi","tag-selandia-baru","tag-swiss-franc","tag-tarif","tag-usa","tag-usd","tag-valas","tag-yen"],"yoast_head":"\nPreview Non-Farm Payrolls: 5 Skenario EUR\/USD - Vibiznews.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/04\/preview-non-farm-payrolls-5-skenario-eur-usd\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Preview Non-Farm Payrolls: 5 Skenario EUR\/USD - Vibiznews.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(Vibiznews-Forex) Ketakutan sedang bertumbuh bahwa lapangan pekerjaan Amerika sedang melambat \u2013 yang telah memukul dolar AS \u2013 namun apakah EUR\/USD bisa naik? Laporan Non-Farm Payrolls bulan September sedang diawasi dengan ketakutan dan bisa memicu lebih banyak volatilitas daripada biasanya. Pasar tenaga kerja telah menonjol di dalam ekonomi Amerika Serikat dengan kekuatannya dan stabilitasnya. 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Laporan Non-Farm Payrolls bulan September sedang diawasi dengan ketakutan dan bisa memicu lebih banyak volatilitas daripada biasanya. Pasar tenaga kerja telah menonjol di dalam ekonomi Amerika Serikat dengan kekuatannya dan stabilitasnya. 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