(Vibiznews – Economy & Business) Komite Kebijakan Moneter Bank of England memilih dengan komposisi mayoritas 7-2 untuk mempertahankan suku bunga Bank di 0,75 persen selama pertemuan kebijakan Oktober.<\/p>\n
Pembuat kebijakan mencatat bahwa kebijakan moneter dapat merespons ke arah manapun terhadap perubahan dalam prospek ekonomi untuk memastikan pengembalian inflasi yang berkelanjutan ke target 2 persen.<\/p>\n
Melihat melalui volatilitas terkait Brexit, pertumbuhan PDB Inggris yang mendasarinya telah melambat secara material tahun ini. Perlambatan itu mencerminkan pertumbuhan global yang lebih lemah, didorong oleh proteksionisme perdagangan, dan dampak domestik dari ketidakpastian terkait Brexit.<\/p>\n
Pada bulan Oktober, Inggris dan Uni Eropa menyepakati Perjanjian Penarikan dan Deklarasi Politik serta perpanjangan yang fleksibel dari Pasal 50. Sebagai konsekuensinya, kemungkinan persepsi Brexit tanpa kesepakatan telah turun tajam dan nilai tukar sterling naik. Perjanjian-perjanjian ini diharapkan untuk menghilangkan beberapa ketidakpastian yang dihadapi bisnis dan rumah tangga, dan MPC memproyeksikan pertumbuhan PDB Inggris akan meningkat selama tahun 2020. Ini akan lebih didukung oleh kebijakan fiskal Inggris yang lebih mudah dan pemulihan moderat dalam pertumbuhan global.<\/p>\n
Tekanan inflasi diperkirakan akan berkurang dalam waktu dekat. Inflasi CPI tetap di 1,7% pada bulan September dan diperkirakan akan turun menjadi sekitar 1\u00bc% pada musim semi, karena efek sementara dari penurunan harga energi dan air yang diatur. Sementara biaya unit tenaga kerja telah tumbuh pada tingkat di atas yang konsisten dengan memenuhi target inflasi dan layanan inti, inflasi CPI telah mulai agak meningkat, pertumbuhan lapangan kerja telah melambat dan pertumbuhan pembayaran cenderung turun kembali dalam waktu dekat. Namun, pada paruh kedua periode perkiraan MPC, ketika margin signifikan dari kelebihan permintaan muncul, tekanan inflasi domestik diperkirakan akan meningkat. Dikondisikan dari hasil pasar saat ini, inflasi CPI diproyeksikan akan naik sedikit di atas 2% menjelang akhir periode perkiraan.<\/p>\n
Jika pertumbuhan global gagal untuk menstabilkan atau jika ketidakpastian Brexit tetap mengakar, kebijakan moneter mungkin perlu untuk memperkuat pemulihan yang diharapkan dalam pertumbuhan dan inflasi PDB Inggris. Lebih jauh ke depan, asalkan risiko ini tidak terwujud dan ekonomi pulih secara luas sejalan dengan proyeksi terbaru MPC, beberapa pengetatan kebijakan yang sederhana, pada kecepatan bertahap dan sampai batas tertentu, mungkin diperlukan untuk menjaga inflasi secara berkelanjutan pada target.<\/p>\n
Asido Situmorang, Senior Analyst, Vibiz Research Center, Vibiz Consulting<\/em><\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"(Vibiznews – Economy & Business) Komite Kebijakan Moneter Bank of England memilih dengan komposisi mayoritas 7-2 untuk mempertahankan suku bunga Bank di 0,75 persen selama pertemuan kebijakan Oktober. Pembuat kebijakan mencatat bahwa kebijakan moneter dapat merespons ke arah manapun terhadap perubahan dalam prospek ekonomi untuk memastikan pengembalian inflasi yang berkelanjutan ke target 2 persen. Melihat […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":2077,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,17],"tags":[327],"class_list":["post-424433","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy-business","category-popular_news","tag-bank-of-england"],"yoast_head":"\n
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