{"id":426875,"date":"2019-12-06T19:11:02","date_gmt":"2019-12-06T12:11:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vibiznews.com\/?p=426875"},"modified":"2019-12-06T19:11:02","modified_gmt":"2019-12-06T12:11:02","slug":"menurut-ubs-ekonomi-global-berpeluang-pulih-terutama-pada-kw4-2020-mengapa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/06\/menurut-ubs-ekonomi-global-berpeluang-pulih-terutama-pada-kw4-2020-mengapa\/","title":{"rendered":"Menurut UBS, Ekonomi Global Berpeluang Pulih Terutama pada Kw4 2020; Mengapa?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">(Vibiznews \u2013 Economy) &#8211; Pertumbuhan ekonomi global diperkirakan akan pulih pada paruh kedua tahun 2020 ketika perang dagang antara Washington dan Beijing mereda serta dampak dari kebijakan moneter bank sentral mulai berlaku, demikian menurut Adrian Zuercher, APAC head of asset allocation pada UBS Global Wealth Management\u2019s Chief Investment Office, sebagaimana dilansir dari CNBC, Kamis (5\/12).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8220;Ada banyak kabut di sekitar perdagangan, itu mempengaruhi perkiraan (<em>forecast<\/em>) kami untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi,&#8221; kata Zuercher kepada &#8220;Street Signs&#8221; CNBC Kamis. Tarif yang diterapkan AS dan China terhadap satu sama lainnya merupakan salah satu \u201crisiko utama&#8221;, kata Zuercher.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Di tengah pelambatan sementara ini, menurutnya pertumbuhan ekonomi global akan melihat &#8220;pemulihan signifikan pada paruh kedua tahun 2020, terutama pada kuartal keempat.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Sebagaimana diketahui belakangan ini, kedua belah pihak telah sepakat untuk <em>deal<\/em> &#8220;fase satu&#8221; pada Oktober lalu. Tetapi para pejabat di Beijing mengatakan mereka tidak dapat mengantisipasi untuk membahas kesepakatan &#8220;fase dua&#8221; sebelum pemilu AS, sebagian karena mereka ingin melihat apakah Presiden Donald Trump memenangkan masa jabatan keduanya. Trump sendiri mengatakan pada hari Selasa bahwa mungkin lebih baik menunggu sampai setelah pemilu 2020 untuk mencapai kesepakatan perdagangan dengan China.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cKami melihat ekonomi A.S. benar-benar melambat dan kami melihat ada peluang bahwa mungkin akan ada kesepakatan fase pertama dan tarif Desember akan diluncurkan atau bahkan dihapus. Itu seharusnya cukup baik bagi perekonomian untuk pulih secara perlahan,\u201d kata Zuercher.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Batas waktu penetapan tarif adalah 15 Desember, tetapi masih belum pasti apakah kedua belah pihak akan menandatangani perjanjian resmi sebelum tanggal tersebut. Jika kedua pihak tidak mencapai kesepakatan pada pertengahan Desember, maka bea tambahan AS untuk ekspor Tiongkok yang akan berlaku.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Sejak kedua ekonomi terbesar dunia memulai perang dagang pada awal 2018, ekonomi Asia telah melihat tren penurunan, tetapi perdagangan bukan satu-satunya faktor yang berkontribusi terhadap perlambatan global, menurut Zuercher.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Selama waktu itu juga para bank sentral mulai menghapus beberapa stimulus ekonomi dan itu mulai berdampak aktif dalam menyusutkan neraca perdagangan secara global,&#8221; tambahnya.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Menjelang akhir 2019 ini, Zuercher mengatakan bank-bank sentral di seluruh dunia telah pindah kembali &#8220;untuk mencetak uang, menaikkan neraca mereka dan menurunkan suku bunga,&#8221; yang semuanya akan nantinya memiliki pengaruh positif pada perekonomian dunia.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Analis Vibiz Research Center melihat <em>forecast<\/em> dari UBS Global Wealth Management ini dapat dijadikan acuan. Bagaimanapun, berbagai upaya kebijakan moneter longgar pada bank sentral seluruh dunia serta stimulus ekonomi melalui kebijakan fiskal pada gilirannya akan berdampak pada pemulihan ekonomi. Terutama bila faktor paling kunci, yaitu perang dagang AS-China, dapat mencapai kesepakatan, walaupun itu masih di fase satu. Namun demikian, kita masih patut mewaspadai adanya <em>front<\/em> perang dagang baru, seperti AS melawan Brazil, Argentina, atau terhadap zona Eropa, atau mungkin juga terhadap Jepang dan Korea.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>Alfred Pakasi\/VBN\/MP Vibiz Consulting<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>Editor: Asido<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Vibiznews \u2013 Economy) &#8211; Pertumbuhan ekonomi global diperkirakan akan pulih pada paruh kedua tahun 2020 ketika perang dagang antara Washington dan Beijing mereda serta dampak dari kebijakan moneter bank sentral mulai berlaku, demikian menurut Adrian Zuercher, APAC head of asset allocation pada UBS Global Wealth Management\u2019s Chief Investment Office, sebagaimana dilansir dari CNBC, Kamis (5\/12). [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101011,"featured_media":421075,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27,29,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-426875","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles-of-the-week","category-economy-business","category-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Menurut UBS, Ekonomi Global Berpeluang Pulih Terutama pada Kw4 2020; Mengapa? - Vibiznews.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/06\/menurut-ubs-ekonomi-global-berpeluang-pulih-terutama-pada-kw4-2020-mengapa\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Menurut UBS, Ekonomi Global Berpeluang Pulih Terutama pada Kw4 2020; Mengapa? - Vibiznews.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(Vibiznews \u2013 Economy) &#8211; Pertumbuhan ekonomi global diperkirakan akan pulih pada paruh kedua tahun 2020 ketika perang dagang antara Washington dan Beijing mereda serta dampak dari kebijakan moneter bank sentral mulai berlaku, demikian menurut Adrian Zuercher, APAC head of asset allocation pada UBS Global Wealth Management\u2019s Chief Investment Office, sebagaimana dilansir dari CNBC, Kamis (5\/12). 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