{"id":465725,"date":"2020-12-31T11:49:54","date_gmt":"2020-12-31T04:49:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vibiznews.com\/?p=465725"},"modified":"2020-12-31T11:49:54","modified_gmt":"2020-12-31T04:49:54","slug":"market-outlook-soft-commodities-coffee-sugar-cocoa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2020\/12\/31\/market-outlook-soft-commodities-coffee-sugar-cocoa\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Outlook Soft Commodities : Coffee – Sugar – Cocoa"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Vibiznews \u2013 Column) \u2013 Gambaran pergerakan pasar dari \u00a0produk soft commodities kopi, gula dan kakao yang diperdagangkan di bursa berjangka ICE New York dan \u00a0ICE London pada tahun 2020 dan perkiraan pada tahun 2021.<\/p>\n

Review Pergerakan Pasar di tahun 2020 ini yang membuat harga soft commodities bergerak \u00a0adalah:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Pandemi dari covid 19, pada awal-awal pandemi negara-negara melakukan lockdown sehingga restoran, cafe dan tempat wisata ditutup, akibatnya permintaan bahan makanan berkurang sehingga permintaan kopi, gula dan coklat berkurang. Pada saat lockdown dibuka antara bulan Mei maka permintaan akan soft commodities mulai meningkat dan harga mulai bergerak lagi.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Namun terjadi gelombang ke 2 pandemi covid yang dimulai bulan Nopember kembali\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 terjadi \u00a0lockdown di negara-negara Eropa sampai dengan awal musim Semi 2021.<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Cuaca\u00a0 buruk di daerah penghasil\u00a0 \u00a0kopi di Brazil dan Vietnam, demikian juga untuk gula di Brazil dan Thailand. Cuaca yang kering\u00a0 membuat tanaman terganggu sehingga hasil tanaman berkurang, bahkan diperlukan irigasi khusus.<\/li>\n
    2. Kurs dari negara penghasil, kurs Real Brazil, Indeks Dolar dan Poundsterling<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Adapun pergerakan soft commoditas masing-masing sebagai berikut:<\/p>\n

      KOPI<\/strong><\/p>\n

      \u00a0Pergerakan harga kopi pada 2020 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/p>\n

      Harga terendah pada tahun 2020 di bulan Mei di harga $103. 21, dan harga tertinggi \u00a0di bulan Agustus di harga $129.75.<\/p>\n

      Negara penghasil kopi terbesar:<\/p>\n

      Kopi Arabika :<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Brazil<\/li>\n
      2. Colombia<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Kopi Robusta:<\/p>\n

          \n
        1. Vietnam<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          Pergerakan harga kopi pada 2020 dipengaruhi\u00a0 oleh:<\/p>\n

          Pergerakan \u00a0pasar \u00a0global :<\/strong><\/p>\n

            \n
          • Produksi kopi\u00a0 dunia\u00a0 di 2019\/20 ( Oktober \u2013 September) turun\u00a0 6%\u00a0 dari tahun lalu menjadi\u00a0\u00a0 168.553\u00a0 juta kantong menurut ICO.<\/li>\n
          • Konsumsi kopi global turun 0.9% dari tahun lalu menjadi 167.592 juta kantong menurut ICO.<\/li>\n
          • Pasar kopi dunia di 2019\/20\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 akan menjadi surplus\u00a0 961,000 kantong dari\u00a0 perkiraan sebelumnya 2.265\u00a0 juta\u00a0 kantong di 2018\/2019\u00a0 menurut ICO.<\/li>\n
          • Produksi kopi Arabika global di 2019\/20 turun 5.1% dari tahun lalu menjadi 95.732 juta kantong<\/li>\n
          • Produksi kopi robusta global naik 3.2% dari tahun lalu menjadi 72.822 juta kantong.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

            Pergerakan Produksi dari\u00a0 Pernegara Produsen :<\/strong><\/p>\n

              \n
            • Produksi kopi Brazil di 2020\/21 diperkirakan akan naik 14.5% dari tahun lalu menjadi 67.9 juta kantong menurut FAS (Foreign Agricultural Service)<\/li>\n
            • Produksi kopi Arabika Colombia turun 4% dari tahun lalu menjadi 1.443 juta kantong menurut Colombia Coffee Growers Federation .<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

              Pergerakan Ekspor Kopi:<\/strong><\/p>\n

                \n
              • Ekspor kopi Brazil di 2020\/21 diperkirakan akan meningkat menjadi 2 juta kantong.<\/li>\n
              • Ekspor kopi Arabika Colombia naik 9 % dari tahun lalu menjadi 1.271 juta kantong Colombia Coffee Growers Federation<\/li>\n
              • Ekspor kopi Robusta Vietnam di Januari \u2013 Nopember\u00a0 turun 3.0% dari tahun lalu menjadi 1.43 MMT menurut General Departement of\u00a0 Vietnam Customs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                Analisa tehnikal untuk kopi Arabika<\/strong> dengan support pertama di $123 dan berikut ke $116 sedangkan resistan pertama di $128 dan berikut ke $130.<\/p>\n

                GULA<\/strong><\/p>\n

                Pergerakan harga gula di 2020<\/strong><\/p>\n

                \"\"<\/p>\n

                Harga terendah pada bulan Maret di $11.41 dan harga tertinggi di bulan Desember $15.23<\/p>\n

                Negara penghasil gula terbesar:<\/p>\n

                Gula tebu :<\/p>\n

                  \n
                1. Brazil<\/li>\n
                2. India<\/li>\n
                3. Thailand<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                  Produsen gula bit:<\/p>\n

                    \n
                  1. Perancis<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                    Pergerakan Harga gula di 2020 dipengaruhi oleh :<\/strong><\/p>\n

                    Pergerakan pasar gula\u00a0 global<\/strong><\/p>\n

                      \n
                    • Produksi gula dunia di 2020\/21 ( April \/ Maret) naik 0.9% dari tahun lalu menjadi 171.1 MT\u00a0 setelah turun 8.4%\u00a0 di 2019\/20 menjadi 169.6 MMT menurut ISO.<\/li>\n
                    • Pasar gula dunia di 2020\/21 akan defisit\u00a0 5\u00a0 MMT\u00a0 surplus 1.86 MMT di 2019\/20 menurut ISO.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                      Pergerakan produksi gula per negara produsen<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        \n
                      • Produksi gula Brazil, negara produsen gula terbesar di dunia di tahun 2020\/21 diperkirakan\u00a0 akan naik 32 % dari tahun lalu menjadi 39.3 MMT dari 29.8 MMT di 2019\/20\u00a0 menurut CONAB.<\/li>\n
                      • Perkiraan produksi gula India di 2020\/21 akan naik 16.8% dari tahun lalu menjadi 33.76 MMT menurut USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).<\/li>\n
                      • Produksi gula Thailand di 2020 \/21 turun 13% dari tahun lalu menjadi terendah 11 tahun sebesar 7.2 MMT karena cuaca kering.<\/li>\n
                      • Perkiraan produksi gula Uni Eropa di 2020\/21 turun 5.6% dari tahun lalu menjadi 16.05 MT karena cuaca kering menurut FAS- USDA.<\/li>\n
                      • Perkiraan produksi gula bit di Perancis, negara produsen gula beet terbesar di Uni Eropa akan turun ke jumlah terendah 19 tahun menjadi 27.2 MMT turun dari perkiraan Oktober sebesar 30.5 MMT karena kekeringan menurut France\u2019s Agricultural Ministry.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                        Pergerakan ekspor gula per negara produsen:<\/strong><\/p>\n

                          \n
                        • Perkiraan ekspor gula India di 2020\/21 akan naik 3.5% menjadi 6 MMT menurut USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                          Analisa tehnikal untuk gula<\/strong> dengan support pertama di $14.60 dan berikut ke $14.30 sedangkan resistant pertama di $15.10 dan berikut ke $15.30.<\/p>\n

                          KAKAO<\/strong><\/p>\n

                          Pergerakan harga kakao:<\/p>\n

                          \"\"<\/p>\n

                          Harga terendah dibulan Mei di $2,185 dan harga tertinggi di bulan Nopember di $2,735.<\/p>\n

                          Negara penghasil kakao:<\/p>\n

                            \n
                          1. Ivory Coast<\/li>\n
                          2. Ghana<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                            Pergerakan Pasar Kakao dipengaruhi oleh:<\/strong><\/p>\n

                            Pergerakan pasar kakao global:<\/strong><\/p>\n

                              \n
                            • Produksi kakao dunia di 2019\/20 (Oktober \u2013 September) akan turun 8% dari tahun lalu menjadi 4.697 MMT menurut ICCO<\/li>\n
                            • Perkiraan produksi kakao yang digiling akan turun 3.2% dari tahun lalu menjadi 4.631 MMT penurunan pertama sejak 2016 menurut ICCO.<\/li>\n
                            • Perkiraan pasar Kakao 2019\/20 akan surplus 19,000 MT dari defisit 48,000 MT di 2018\/19. menurut ICCO<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                              Produksi kakao per produsen:<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                \n
                              • Produksi Ivory Coast di 2019\/20 diperkirakan naik 1.2% dari tahun lalu menjadi 2.18 MMT.<\/li>\n
                              • Produksi Ghana 2019\/20 diperkirakan naik 2.3% dari tahun lalu menjadi 850,000 MT menurut ICCO<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                Analisa tehnikal untuk kakao<\/strong> dengan support pertama di $2,500 dan berikut ke $2,440 sedangkan resistant pertama di $2,630 dan berikut ke $2,650.<\/p>\n

                                Perkiraan pergerakan harga soft commodities di tahun 2021:<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                  \n
                                • Pandemi Covid-19 gelombang ke dua masih akan mengurangi permintaan akan soft commodities, namun dengan adanya vaksin maka ditemukan solusi sehingga tidak perlu lagi lockdown, maka diperkirakan permintaan akan soft commodities akan meningkat<\/li>\n
                                • Faktor cuaca akan terus berpengaruh, cuaca yang tidak menentu membuat produksi berkurang terutama di daerah produsen soft commodities<\/li>\n
                                • Pergerakan ekonomi dunia dan pergerakan kurs dolar akan sangat mempengaruhi pergerakan harga.<\/li>\n
                                • Life style yang berubah merupakan ancaman bagi soft commodities.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                  Loni T \/ Senior Analyst Vibiz Research Centre Division, Vibiz Consulting<\/p>\n

                                  Editor : Asido<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                                  (Vibiznews \u2013 Column) \u2013 Gambaran pergerakan pasar dari \u00a0produk soft commodities kopi, gula dan kakao yang diperdagangkan di bursa berjangka ICE New York dan \u00a0ICE London pada tahun 2020 dan perkiraan pada tahun 2021. Review Pergerakan Pasar di tahun 2020 ini yang membuat harga soft commodities bergerak \u00a0adalah: Pandemi dari covid 19, pada awal-awal pandemi […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101019,"featured_media":465739,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[669,7,2947,6273],"tags":[6599,6601,7703,10879,7841,3445,9407,8915,7803,9435,2505,9635,7553,3441,4427,6711,867,2513,1325,6517,4247],"class_list":["post-465725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-column","category-commodity","category-market","category-yearly-review","tag-as","tag-brazil","tag-fas","tag-fas-conab","tag-ghana","tag-gula","tag-icco","tag-ice-london","tag-ice-new-york","tag-ico","tag-india","tag-iso","tag-ivory-coast","tag-kakao","tag-kopi-arabika","tag-kopi-robusta","tag-perancis","tag-thailand","tag-uni-eropa","tag-usda","tag-vietnam"],"yoast_head":"\nMarket Outlook Soft Commodities : Coffee - Sugar - Cocoa - Vibiznews.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2020\/12\/31\/market-outlook-soft-commodities-coffee-sugar-cocoa\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Market Outlook Soft Commodities : Coffee - Sugar - Cocoa - Vibiznews.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(Vibiznews \u2013 Column) \u2013 Gambaran pergerakan pasar dari \u00a0produk soft commodities kopi, gula dan kakao yang diperdagangkan di bursa berjangka ICE New York dan \u00a0ICE London pada tahun 2020 dan perkiraan pada tahun 2021. 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