{"id":474645,"date":"2021-03-08T07:40:09","date_gmt":"2021-03-08T00:40:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vibiznews.com\/?p=474645"},"modified":"2021-03-08T08:49:17","modified_gmt":"2021-03-08T01:49:17","slug":"rekomendasi-mingguan-gbp-usd-8-12-maret-2021-masih-berpeluang-naik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/08\/rekomendasi-mingguan-gbp-usd-8-12-maret-2021-masih-berpeluang-naik\/","title":{"rendered":"Rekomendasi Mingguan GBP\/USD 8 \u2013 12 Maret 2021: Masih Berpeluang Naik?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Naiknya yields AS menjadi penggerak pasar matauang saat ini, dengan setiap pergerakan di dalam yields obligasi 10 tahun AS, menggerakkan dollar AS. USD naik setiap kali yields AS yang menjadi benchmark global naik ke atas 1.5% dan USD turun setiap kali yields AS bertengger mendekati 1.4%. Investor memonitor ketat the Fed, data ekonomi dan perkembangan stimulus.<\/p>\n

Jerome Powell, Gubernur Federal Reserve AS, menolak untuk berjanji mengendalikan kenaikan imbal hasil, hanya berkata bahwa kecepatan kenaikan imbal hasil menarik perhatiannya. Bahkan bank sentral AS ini melihat kenaikan imbal hasil sebagai tanda dari prospek pertumbuhan yang lebih baik. Keengganannya untuk bertindak membuat imbal hasil treasury AS dan dollar AS makin naik sehingga memukul turun GBP\/USD jauh dibawah 1.40, di sekitar 1.3835.<\/p>\n

Bagaimana dengan data ekonomi AS? Minggu lalu dimulai dengan keluarnya PMI manufaktur dari ISM yang bagus. Namun, angka pekerjaan dari ADP dan PMI jasa dari ISM meleset dari perkiraan sehingga menyebabkan keprihatinan akan employment.<\/p>\n

NonFarm Payrolls bulan Februari menunjukkan kenaikan sebanyak 379.000, dua kali lipat lebih tinggi daripada yang diperkirakan dan diatas dari revisi naik. Dolar bereaksi dengan memperpanjang keuntungan.<\/p>\n

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Stimulus fiskal AS disetujui bersama dengan membatasi cek stimulus senilai $1,400. Pasar telah memperhitungkan dalam harga, kompromi semacam diatas dan menaikkan peluang undang \u2013 undang stimulus akan bisa dikeluarkan, menambah prospek pertumbuhan. Hal ini juga mendorong naik yields<\/em> dan dollar AS.<\/p>\n

Amerika Serikat mulai menyuntik warganya dengan vaksin dari Johnson & Johnson, senjata yang ketiga yang diturunkan untuk melawan Covid \u2013 19. Sementara imunisasi di AS dan Inggris berjalan dengan cepat, kasus baru telah berhenti dari penurunan yang tajam.<\/p>\n

Di Inggris, Menteri Keuangan Inggris, Rishi Sunak berhasil mempresentasikan kenaikan pajak korporasi tanpa membenamkan Sterling. Mungkin yang paling menarik adalah insentif untuk investor berupa \u201csuper deduction\u201d. Sementara itu, Markit final PMI Inggris muncul bervariasi. Manufaktur lompat ke 55.1, namun jasa turun ke 49.5.<\/p>\n

Minggu ini, Gubernur Bank of England Andrew Bailey direncanakan akan berbicara pada awal minggu dan diharapkan akan membentuk ekspektasi dan komentar mengenai naiknya imbal hasil obligasi.<\/p>\n

Sementara itu kecepatan imunisasi kelihatannya melambat pada minggu \u2013 minggu belakangan ini. \u00a0Kecepatan imunisasi kritikal karena Inggris akan memasuki pembukaan kembali ekonomi tahap pertama pada tanggal 8 Maret. Kembalinya ke normal yang berhasil akan mendorong naik Sterling sementara hambatan yang terjadi akan membebani.<\/p>\n

Event kedua yang signifikan dari Inggris adalah GDP bulan Januari. Meskipun terjadi lockdown, ekonomi Inggris pada akhir 2020 mengalami kenaikan namun ada keragu-raguan mengenai bulan Januari dimana Inggris mengalami lockdown nasional dalam cakupan yang lebih luas dan lebih ketat.<\/p>\n

Di Amerika Serikat, stimulus terdorong untuk segera dikeluarkan karena ada tenggat waktu dimana beberapa program pemerintah yang ada sekarang akan segera jatuh tempo. House of Rep dari Demokrat telah meloloskan stimulus senilai $1.9 triliun yang awal, apakah Senat akan menyetujui sejumlah nilai yang sama?<\/p>\n

Investor telah memperhitungkan dalam harga senilai antara $1 triliun sampai $1.5 triliun. Jadi apabila nilainya hanya beberapa ratus miliar dollar AS, akan mengecewakan, sementara apabila mendekati nilai awal akan menggembirakan pasar.<\/p>\n

Setelah hambatan di dalam vaksinasi yang disebabkan oleh karena terjadinya badai musim dingin, lebih dari dua juta orang Amerika menerima vaksin setiap harinya. Apabila bisa lebih cepat, maka akan menggembirakan pasar.<\/p>\n

Apakah harga konsumen naik? Inflasi tetap rendah pada bulan Januari, namun harga produsen mengalami kenaikan. Para ekonom memperkirakan CPI umum akan naik ke 1.6% di bulan Februari, namun untuk CPI inti tertekan di 1.4%. Setiap ada tanda-tanda kenaikan harga, akan bisa mendorong naik dollar AS.<\/p>\n

Klaim pengangguran mingguan pada hari Kamis menarik perhatian setelah keluarnya Nonfarm Payrolls, namun minggu belakangan ini, investor sudah kurang sensitif terhadap kegelisahan karena meningkatnya angka pengangguran.<\/p>\n

Consumer Sentiment Index pendahuluan untuk bulan Maret dari Universitas Michigan diperkirakan akan tetap dibawah 80, meskipun ada stimulus dan vaksinasi.<\/p>\n

Meskipun terjadi penurunan belakangan ini, masih ada tanda \u2013 tanda bullish<\/em> dari pasangan matauang ini.<\/p>\n

\u201cSupport\u201d terdekat menunggu di 1.3793 yang apabila berhasil dilewati akan lanjut ke 1.3656 dan kemudian 1.3565. \u201cResistance\u201d terdekat menunggu di 1.3981 yang apabila berhasil dilewati akan lanjut ke 1.4068 dan kemudian 1.4140.<\/p>\n

Ricky Ferlianto\/VBN\/Managing Partner\u00a0 Vibiz Consulting<\/p>\n

Editor: Asido<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Naiknya yields AS menjadi penggerak pasar matauang saat ini, dengan setiap pergerakan di dalam yields obligasi 10 tahun AS, menggerakkan dollar AS. USD naik setiap kali yields AS yang menjadi benchmark global naik ke atas 1.5% dan USD turun setiap kali yields AS bertengger mendekati 1.4%. Investor memonitor ketat the Fed, data ekonomi dan perkembangan […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101021,"featured_media":455575,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[91,21],"tags":[589,6655,6695,417,555,9453,6885,6895,6887,6691,6787,735,4231,6899,2719,2885,309,6903,165,6653,3653,345,6901,2121,6693,6889,63,65,167,6893,3015,6883,2399,6785,2357,6659,6891,6793,6789,6897,2469,169,895],"class_list":["post-474645","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forex","category-recommendation","tag-amerika","tag-analisis","tag-aud","tag-aussie","tag-australia","tag-berita-2","tag-cad","tag-canada","tag-chf","tag-currency","tag-dagang","tag-dolar","tag-ekonomi","tag-england","tag-eropa","tag-eur","tag-euro","tag-europe","tag-forex-2","tag-fundamental","tag-gbp","tag-inggris","tag-japan","tag-jepang","tag-jpy","tag-kanada","tag-komoditas","tag-komoditi","tag-matauang","tag-new-zealand","tag-news","tag-nzd","tag-outlook","tag-perang","tag-poundsterling","tag-prediksi","tag-selandia-baru","tag-swiss-franc","tag-tarif","tag-usa","tag-usd","tag-valas","tag-yen"],"yoast_head":"\nRekomendasi Mingguan GBP\/USD 8 \u2013 12 Maret 2021: Masih Berpeluang Naik? - Vibiznews.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/08\/rekomendasi-mingguan-gbp-usd-8-12-maret-2021-masih-berpeluang-naik\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rekomendasi Mingguan GBP\/USD 8 \u2013 12 Maret 2021: Masih Berpeluang Naik? - Vibiznews.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Naiknya yields AS menjadi penggerak pasar matauang saat ini, dengan setiap pergerakan di dalam yields obligasi 10 tahun AS, menggerakkan dollar AS. 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