{"id":475533,"date":"2021-03-15T00:11:08","date_gmt":"2021-03-14T17:11:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vibiznews.com\/?p=475533"},"modified":"2021-03-15T09:43:48","modified_gmt":"2021-03-15T02:43:48","slug":"rekomendasi-emas-15-19-maret-2021-tersandera-pasar-treasury-as","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/15\/rekomendasi-emas-15-19-maret-2021-tersandera-pasar-treasury-as\/","title":{"rendered":"Rekomendasi Emas 15 \u2013 19 Maret 2021: Tersandera Pasar Treasury AS"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Vibiznews \u2013 Commodity) Apakah emas telah menyentuh dasarnya pada level terendah dalam 10 bulan minggu yang lalu? Para analis sedang menunggu apakah metal berharga kuning ini bisa bertahan di level $1,700 per troy ons dan membebaskan diri ikatan pasar Treasury.<\/p>\n

Setelah sempat turun ke $1,675 pada hari Senin minggu yang lalu, emas berjangka kontrak bulan April berhasil naik kembali ke atas $1,730.<\/p>\n

Pada hari Jumat minggu lalu, emas sempat mengalami penurunan namun berhasil bertahan di level $1,700 per ons ditengah naiknya yields Treasury AS. Pasar obligasi mengalami aksi jual setelah undang \u2013 undang stimulus senilai $1.9 triliun berhasil ditandatangani pada hari Kamis. Pada saat ini, emas berjangka Comex kontrak bulan April diperdagangkan disekitar $1,727.51.<\/p>\n

Yields obligasi AS 10 tahun sedang mengalami kenaikan dan kurvanya naik tajam. Hal ini bisa berlanjut apabila data ekonomi yang keluar membaik dan adanya pembicaraan mengenai inflasi. Meningkatnya minat terhadap resiko membawa kepada naiknya yields AS. Dan hal ini bukanlah sesuatu yang baik bagi emas. Metal berharga tersandera oleh pasar Treasury AS.<\/p>\n

Yields Treasury AS 10 tahun naik diatas 1.60% dalam perdagangan semalam. Harga emas di level $1,675 bisa jadi level terendah bagi emas saat ini namun semua tergantung kepada pergerakan dari yields AS apakah akan terus naik.<\/p>\n

Paket stimulus AS senilai $1.9 triliun juga bersifat inflationary. Pasar mengharapkan para konsumen mulai keluar dan membelanjakan uangnya. Apalagi jika setiap orang sudah divaksinasi di Amerika Serikat, kurva yields AS akan berespon dan emas akan mengalami saat yang sulit. Belum lagi pasar sudah mulai memperhitungkan dalam harga langkah \u2013 langkah stimulus berikutnya termasuk belanja infrastruktur.<\/p>\n

Korelasi sekarang ini antara yields AS dan emas adalah pada saat yields AS naik, emas turun. Namun hal ini bisa berubah kedepannya, dan sekali berubah, emas bisa naik lebih tinggi.<\/p>\n

Pada akhirnya, korelasi sekarang ini akan berubah. Federal Reserve AS mengakui mereka melihat inflasi dan mungkin harus menaikkan tingkat bunga lebih cepat daripada yang dipikirkan dan hal ini akan merubah korelasi saat ini. Atau bahkan hanya dengan mengakui bahwa naiknya yields AS membuat prihatin, hal ini akan bisa menjadi factor bullish bagi emas.<\/p>\n

The Fed selama ini mengabaikan isu yields AS. Karenanya semua mata akan tertuju kepada Gubernur the Fed Jerome Powell pada minggu ini yang akan mengadakan acara konferensi pers setelah pengumuman tingkat bunga pada hari Rabu.<\/p>\n

ECB pada hari Kamis minggu lalu, mengatakan bahwa mereka prihatin dengan inflasi dan pencetakan uang. ECB akan menggunakan Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) untuk menghentikan setiap kenaikan biaya hutang yang tidak beralasan.<\/p>\n

Presiden ECB, Christine Lagarde mengatakan,\u201dnaiknya yields akan bisa berubah bentuk menjadi pengetatan belanja di seluruh sector ekonomi secara premature. Sementara, ECB ingin memelihara kondisi keuangan yang baik dengan inflasi hanya mengintip disepanjang jalan.<\/p>\n

Jika saja the Fed memiliki pandangan yang sama seperti ini, hal ini akan menjadi factor bullish bagie mas. Kenyataan bahwa yields AS terus naik pada saat ini menunjukkan bahwa the Fed kehilangan kontrol.<\/p>\n

Selain itu pasar akan memperhatikan proyeksi kuartalan dari the Fed yang diperkirakan akan merevisi naik GDP AS 2021.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Silahkan klik jika ingin join Telegram Vibiznews<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Dari kalender ekonomi, data makro ekonomi lainnya yang akan keluar adalah angka Retail Sales AS. Setelah lompatan yang besar ke 5.3% pada bulan Januari, angka untuk bulan Februari kemungkinan akan turun ke 0%. Meskipun demikian, dukungan dari paket stimulus sebelumnya\u00a0 bisa memberikan dampak yang positip dan mendorong naik dollar AS.<\/p>\n

Angka klaim pengangguran mingguan juga menarik perhatian, dimana kemungkinan terjadi penurunan yang bertahap.<\/p>\n

Kritikal untuk melihat bagaimana emas bereaksi pada minggu ini disekitar level $1,700 per ons. Pergerakan ke arah $1,760 akan merupakan signal kemungkinan terjadinya rally, sementara penurunan dibawah $1,670 membuka pintu kepada kejatuhan ke $1,600 per ons. $1,670 adalah level support yang jika tertembus akan bisa turun sampai ke $1600. Kondisi saat ini berbahaya untuk melakukan aksi jual emas namun juga kurang menguntungkan untuk membeli emas pada harga sekarang.<\/p>\n

\u201cSupport\u201d terdekat menunggu di $1,714.51 yang apabila berhasil dilewati akan lanjut ke $1,700.00 dan kemudian $1,673.30. \u201cResistance\u201d terdekat menunggu di $1,735.10 yang apabila berhasil dilewati akan lanjut ke $1,747.79 dan kemudian $1,760.00.<\/p>\n

Ricky Ferlianto\/VBN\/Managing Partner\u00a0 Vibiz Consulting<\/p>\n

Editor: Asido<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(Vibiznews \u2013 Commodity) Apakah emas telah menyentuh dasarnya pada level terendah dalam 10 bulan minggu yang lalu? Para analis sedang menunggu apakah metal berharga kuning ini bisa bertahan di level $1,700 per troy ons dan membebaskan diri ikatan pasar Treasury. Setelah sempat turun ke $1,675 pada hari Senin minggu yang lalu, emas berjangka kontrak bulan […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101021,"featured_media":429501,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,21,89],"tags":[57,7781,3301,63,65,7447,7451,3947,71,6931,7449,3685,7779],"class_list":["post-475533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-video","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commodity","category-recommendation","category-media-center","tag-emas","tag-gasoline","tag-gold","tag-komoditas","tag-komoditi","tag-metal-berharga","tag-metal-kuning","tag-minyak-mentah","tag-perak","tag-perang-dagang","tag-precious-metal","tag-silver","tag-trade-war","post_format-post-format-video"],"yoast_head":"\nRekomendasi Emas 15 \u2013 19 Maret 2021: Tersandera Pasar Treasury AS - Vibiznews.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/15\/rekomendasi-emas-15-19-maret-2021-tersandera-pasar-treasury-as\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rekomendasi Emas 15 \u2013 19 Maret 2021: Tersandera Pasar Treasury AS - Vibiznews.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(Vibiznews \u2013 Commodity) Apakah emas telah menyentuh dasarnya pada level terendah dalam 10 bulan minggu yang lalu? 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He was experience in futures business for 13 years in Futures Brokerage Firm and 3 years in Futures Exchange. Currently he is a Head Research of Vibiz Consulting.\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/author\/ricky-ferlianto\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Rekomendasi Emas 15 \u2013 19 Maret 2021: Tersandera Pasar Treasury AS - Vibiznews.com","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/15\/rekomendasi-emas-15-19-maret-2021-tersandera-pasar-treasury-as\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Rekomendasi Emas 15 \u2013 19 Maret 2021: Tersandera Pasar Treasury AS - Vibiznews.com","og_description":"(Vibiznews \u2013 Commodity) Apakah emas telah menyentuh dasarnya pada level terendah dalam 10 bulan minggu yang lalu? 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