{"id":484613,"date":"2021-05-24T00:03:50","date_gmt":"2021-05-23T17:03:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vibiznews.com\/?p=484613"},"modified":"2021-05-23T23:41:08","modified_gmt":"2021-05-23T16:41:08","slug":"rekomendasi-mingguan-eur-usd-24-28-mei-2021-potensi-bullish-karena-penurunan-usd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/24\/rekomendasi-mingguan-eur-usd-24-28-mei-2021-potensi-bullish-karena-penurunan-usd\/","title":{"rendered":"Rekomendasi Mingguan EUR\/USD 24 \u2013 28 Mei 2021: Potensi Bullish Karena Penurunan USD?"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Vibiznews \u2013 Forex) Setelah mengalami kenaikan ke 1.22, akibat melemahnya dollar AS dan membaiknya angka Covid \u2013 19 di Eropa, EUR\/USD berbalik turun ke 1.2181 oleh karena keluarnya data makro ekonomi AS yang bagus dari PMI manufaktur dan jasa AS dimana PMI jasa AS menyentuh 70.2 di bulan Mei mencetak rekor tertinggi dan mengatasi yang diperkirakan, membuat indeks dollar AS kembali naik sehingga menekan EUR\/USD turun.<\/p>\n

Risalah pertemuan FOMC the Fed yang keluar pada hari Rabu minggu lalu menunjukkan bawah beberapa pejabat the Fed mempertimbangkan untuk menyesuaikan kecepatan dalam pembelian assets pada suatu waktu di dalam pertemuan yang akan datang nantinya, jika ekonomi AS terus menguat. \u00a0Tanda-tanda mengenai tapering ini cukup untuk memicu rally di dalam yields obligasi pemerintah AS dan mengirim saham-saham turun, dan melemahnya dollar AS, walaupun reaksi ini hanya berlangsung sebentar saja.<\/p>\n

Namun, para investor sedang menilai ulang risalah pertemuan tersebut dan artinya pada hari Kamis. Investor mencatat bahwa kepala Federal Reserve Jerome Powell dan kebanyakan dari koleganya mendukung tetap mempertahankan kebijakan tidak berubah untuk waktu tertentu dan bahwa pemulihan ekonomi AS masih panjang perjalanannya. Hal ini membuat dollar AS berbalik turun.<\/p>\n

Yields obligasi AS 10 tahun, naik ke 1.70% segera setelah rilis risalah pertemuan FOMC, namun dengan cepat kembali turun ke sekitar 1.62%.<\/p>\n

Sebaliknya di Eropa, Presiden ECB Christine Lagarde menyatakan bahwa karena ketidakpastian yang terus berlangsung, kebijakan yang akomodatif akan tetap diperlukan untuk bulan-bulan yang akan datang. Lagarde memberikan catatan bahwa dia percaya Uni Eropa sedang dalam proses pemulihan, namun pemulihan ini masih serba tidak pasti dan kenaikan inflasi pada tahun ini adalah bersifat sementara.<\/p>\n

Amerika Serikat membukukan angka makro ekonomi yang bervariasi. Data yang sehubungan dengan perumahan lebih lemah daripada yang diantisipasikan di bulan April, dengan Building Permits naik lemah di 0.3%, sementara Housing Starts jatuh 9.5%. Indeks-indeks regional menunjukkan tanda-tanda perbaikan yang berkelanjutan, sementara NY Empire State Manufacturing Index muncul di 24.3 di bulan Mei dan Philadelphia Fed<\/a> Manufacturing Survey di 31.5. Angka yang paling memberikan semangat adalah Initial Jobless Claims untuk minggu yang berakhir pada 14 Mei 2021 yang turun ke 444.000, angka terendah sejak Maret 2020.<\/p>\n

PMI markit AS untuk bulan Mei mengatasi yang diperkirakan dengan output manufaktur naik ke 61.5 dan indeks jasa mencetak angka yang mengesankan di 70.1. Angka-angka makro ekonomi AS mengindikasikan pertumbuhan yang stabil dan perbaikan diberbagai sektor utama dari ekonomi yang bisa memicu keprihatinan akan inflasi, dan dengan demikian juga menekan matauang Amerika.<\/p>\n

Sementara Uni Eropa mengkonfirmasi angka GDP kuartal pertama sebesar \u2013 0.6% QoQ. Inflasi di bulan April naik sebanyak 1.6% YoY sebagaimana yang diperkirakan, walaupun angka inti muncul di 0.7%, turun dari 0.8%. Pada hari Jumat, Markit mempublikasikan perkiraan pendahuluan bulan Mei, dengan sektor jasa membukukan perbaikan yang besar, dengan Indeks Jerman naik ke 52.8 dari 49.9 sementara indeks Uni Eropa keseluruhan muncul di 55.1. Output manufaktur tetap diatas 60, yang menunjukkan ekspansi yang stabil.<\/p>\n

Minggu ini dari Eropa, Jerman akan mempublikasikan revisi dari GDP kuartal pertama, yang diperkirakan tidak berubah dari \u2013 1.7% QoQ, dan Consumer Confidence Survey GFK bulan Juni, yang diperkirakan muncul di \u2013 3.5 dari sebelumnya \u2013 8.80. Sementara Uni Eropa hanya akan mempublikasikan Consumer Confidence bulan Mei.<\/p>\n

Sementara itu di AS hampir setengah populasi AS atau kira-kira 60% dari orang dewasa telah menerima paling sedikit satu kali suntikan. Apakah ini cukup? Melonggarnya penggunaan masker, cepatnya pembukaan kembali ekonomi, mundurnya suntikan dari vaksin Johnson & Johnson semua adalah faktor potensial di dalam penurunan suntikan vaksin belakangan ini. Apakah ini beresiko terhadap pemulihan ekonomi AS? Sebegitu jauh, ketakutan di AS berpusat kepada memanasnya ekonomi yang disebabkan cepatnya kembali ke normal. Dan jika grafik Covid -19 terus menurun, maka mantra dari Federal Reserve yang mengatakan \u201cperjalanan masih jauh\u201d akan bisa terdengar lebih keras.<\/p>\n

Para ekonom memperkirakan update angka GDP untuk kuartal pertama, diupgrade ke 6.5% per tahun, suatu kecepatan pertumbuhan yang kuat.<\/p>\n

Pada hari Kamis, rilis dari data Durable Goods Orders untuk bulan April bisa menutupi GDP, khususnya jika angkanya berdeviasi substansial dari yang diperkirakan. Diperkirakan ada kenaikan yang moderat.<\/p>\n

Hari Jumat akan dirilis \u00a0Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation \u2013 the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (Core PCE). Untuk pertama kalinya sejak tahun 2019, angka ini melewati 2% per tahun, menyentuh 2.4%. Apabila naik lebih jauh bisa mendorong naik dollar AS, sementara apabila turun akan mendorong turun dollar AS.<\/p>\n

\u201cSupport\u201d terdekat menunggu di 1.2160 yang apabila berhasil dilewati akan lanjut ke 1.2110 dan kemudian 1.2000.\u00a0 \u201cResistance\u201d terdekat menunggu di 1.2245 yang apabila berhasil dilewati akan lanjut ke 1.2290 dan kemudian 1.2349.<\/p>\n

Ricky Ferlianto\/VBN\/Managing Partner Vibiz Consulting<\/p>\n

Editor: Asido<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(Vibiznews \u2013 Forex) Setelah mengalami kenaikan ke 1.22, akibat melemahnya dollar AS dan membaiknya angka Covid \u2013 19 di Eropa, EUR\/USD berbalik turun ke 1.2181 oleh karena keluarnya data makro ekonomi AS yang bagus dari PMI manufaktur dan jasa AS dimana PMI jasa AS menyentuh 70.2 di bulan Mei mencetak rekor tertinggi dan mengatasi yang […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101021,"featured_media":32220,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[91,21],"tags":[589,6655,6695,417,555,9453,6885,6895,6887,6691,6787,735,4231,6899,2719,2885,309,6903,165,6653,3653,345,6901,2121,6693,6889,63,65,167,6893,3015,6883,2399,6785,2357,6659,6891,6793,6789,6897,2469,169,895],"class_list":["post-484613","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forex","category-recommendation","tag-amerika","tag-analisis","tag-aud","tag-aussie","tag-australia","tag-berita-2","tag-cad","tag-canada","tag-chf","tag-currency","tag-dagang","tag-dolar","tag-ekonomi","tag-england","tag-eropa","tag-eur","tag-euro","tag-europe","tag-forex-2","tag-fundamental","tag-gbp","tag-inggris","tag-japan","tag-jepang","tag-jpy","tag-kanada","tag-komoditas","tag-komoditi","tag-matauang","tag-new-zealand","tag-news","tag-nzd","tag-outlook","tag-perang","tag-poundsterling","tag-prediksi","tag-selandia-baru","tag-swiss-franc","tag-tarif","tag-usa","tag-usd","tag-valas","tag-yen"],"yoast_head":"\nRekomendasi Mingguan EUR\/USD 24 \u2013 28 Mei 2021: Potensi Bullish Karena Penurunan USD? 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