{"id":573947,"date":"2024-12-15T22:53:45","date_gmt":"2024-12-15T15:53:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/?p=573947"},"modified":"2024-12-16T19:52:02","modified_gmt":"2024-12-16T12:52:02","slug":"the-fed-bakal-pangkas-suku-bunga-akankah-memberikan-sentimen-positif-bagi-pasar-global","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vibiznews.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/15\/the-fed-bakal-pangkas-suku-bunga-akankah-memberikan-sentimen-positif-bagi-pasar-global\/","title":{"rendered":"The Fed Bakal Pangkas Suku Bunga; Akankah Memberikan Sentimen Positif Bagi Pasar Global?"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Vibiznews \u2013 Economy & Business) Federal Reserve AS akan mengadakan pertemuan kebijakan suku bunganya yang terakhir di tahun 2024 ini pada pekan ini, tanggal 17-18 Desember 2024<\/p>\n

Menjelang pertemuan The Fed tersebut, pasar secara luas memperkirakan akan terjadi pemangkasan suku bunga sebesar 25 basis poin.\u00a0 Jika pemangkasan suku bunga terjadi, akan menjadi pemangkasan ketiga berturut-turut tahun ini.<\/p>\n

Pertimbangan Pemangkasan Suku Bunga<\/strong><\/p>\n

Seperti yang disampaikan risalah dari pertemuan The Fed pada 6-7 November 2024 menunjukkan Pejabat Federal Reserve optimisme bahwa inflasi mereda dan pasar tenaga kerja tetap kuat, mendukung kemungkinan penurunan suku bunga lebih lanjut.<\/p>\n

Menstabilkan Pasar Pekerjaan AS<\/strong><\/p>\n

Data Non Farm Payrolls AS bulan November menunjukkan peningkatan dari 36K menjadi 227K, mencerminkan pulihnya pasar tenaga kerja AS setelah mengalami penurunan akibat pemogokan pekerja Perusahaan Boeing dan badai yang terjadi.<\/p>\n

Namun data Unemployment Rate AS bulan November yang meningkat dari 4,1% manjadi 4,2% mencerminkan banyaknya pengangguran, yang berarti berkurangnya pekerja.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Untuk itu dengan pemangkasan suku bunga, diharapkan dapat menstabilkan lagi pasar pekerjaan AS dan memperkuat ekonomi AS.<\/p>\n

Stabilnya Inflasi AS<\/strong><\/p>\n

Data inflasi AS bulan November menunjukkan kestabilan. Data Inflasi dan inflasi inti bulan November baik secara bulanan dan tahunan sesuai dengan perkiraan pasar.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

sumber : Tradingeconomics<\/p>\n

Dengan peningkatan tingkat pengangguran dan stabilnya inflasi AS menjadi pertimbangan kuat The Fed melanjutkan pemangkasan suku bunga bulan Desember 2024 ini.<\/p>\n

Peningkatan Probablitas Pemangkasan Suku Bunga The Fed <\/strong><\/p>\n

Berdasarkan pengukuran CME Fed Watch Tools, maka terjadi peningkatan probabilitas pemangkasan suku bunga The Fed dari 86% pada pekan lalu menjadi 96% pada hari ini.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Demikian juga dari perkiraan tradingeconomics, akan terjadi pemangkasan suku bunga The Fed sebesar 25 basis poin pada bulan Desember ini, bahkan terjadi tren penurunan suku bunga hingga awal tahun 2025.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Prospek Positif Pemangkasan Suku Bunga The Fed<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jika pemangkasan suku bunga The Fed terealisir, diperkirakan akan memberikan sentiment positif bagi pasar saham, baik bursa saham Wall Street maupun bursa saham global. Demikian juga pasar komoditas seperti emas, minyak dan komoditas lainnya akan menguat.<\/p>\n

Pasar investasi global akan fokus mencermati keputusan kebijakan suku bunga The Fed pekan ini yang akan menjadi penggerak utama di akhir tahun 2024 ini.<\/p>\n

Pasar Saham<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bursa saham Wakll Street berakhir mixed pada akhir pekan hari Jumat, dengan Nasdaq mencatat hasil positif didukung saham teknologi.<\/p>\n

Tren bursa saham AS hingga akhir tahun ini juga sebagian besar diproyeksikan meningkat, dengan indeks S&P 500 dan Nasdaq dengan tren meningkat.<\/p>\n

Tren S&P 500 2024<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Sumber : barchart<\/p>\n

Tren Nasdaq<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Sumber : barchart<\/p>\n

Diperkirakan jika The Fed memangkas suku bunganya pada pekan ini, akan menguatkan bursa Wall Street, dan akan memberikan sentimen positif bagi bursa global lainnya seperti bursa Asia dan Eropa.<\/p>\n

Pasar Emas<\/strong><\/p>\n

Harga emas berakhir turun pada akhir pekan hari Jumat karena dolar AS menguat, namun untuk bulan November harga emas menguat sekitar 3 persen dengan adanya pemangkasan suku bunga The Fed bulan November.<\/p>\n

Diperkirakan jika The Fed memangkas suku bunganya pada pekan ini, akan menguatkan harga emas.<\/p>\n

Dolar AS<\/strong><\/p>\n

Indeks dolar AS berakhir turun tipis pada akhir pekan hari Jumat denga kehati-hatian menantikan kebijakan suku bunga The Fed,\u00a0 dengan pasar secara luas memperkirakan pemangkasan suku bunga The Fed 25 basis poin.<\/p>\n

Diperkirakan jika The Fed memangkas suku bunganya pada pekan ini, akan dapat menakan dolar AS.<\/p>\n

Jika dolar AS melemah maka akan menguatkan harga komoditas baik emas, minyak dan komoditas lainnya seperti kopi, gula, kakao dan berbagai komoditas lainnya.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(Vibiznews \u2013 Economy & Business) Federal Reserve AS akan mengadakan pertemuan kebijakan suku bunganya yang terakhir di tahun 2024 ini pada pekan ini, tanggal 17-18 Desember 2024 Menjelang pertemuan The Fed tersebut, pasar secara luas memperkirakan akan terjadi pemangkasan suku bunga sebesar 25 basis poin.\u00a0 Jika pemangkasan suku bunga terjadi, akan menjadi pemangkasan ketiga berturut-turut […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":533422,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[669,29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-573947","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-column","category-economy-business"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Fed Bakal Pangkas Suku Bunga; Akankah Memberikan Sentimen Positif Bagi Pasar Global? 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